By Denise Ross

Holy electoral math, Batman! I’ve seen it with my own eyes, and I’m still trying to accept it as true. The Cook Political Report has moved South Dakota into the toss-up column in the presidential race.

We have joined the ranks of Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada and Georgia. According to Charlie Cook, we’re not even the lightest shade of pink.

I could not find an explanation for our new status, perhaps because I am not a Cook Report subscriber. It probably is due at least in part to the recent poll that is the subject of the post below.

And the Dems have been pointing out McCain’s long-standing, full-throated opposition to ethanol and farm subsidies, which I have long thought was their strongest card to play here.

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By Denise Ross

Last I’d heard, McCain had a 7-point lead on Obama here in dear ol’ SD. Now there’s a poll done by the Tim Johnson campaign that shows it at either a 5-point difference, or a 4-point difference - as it appears there might have been a typo in tallying the results.

The summary shows Obama getting 40 percent of the vote, McCain 45 percent, Nader 4 and “other candidate,” 1. The remaining 10 percent are undecided, which seems high, but there you have it.

In the breakdown of the questions, however, it shows that 42 % of respondents said they would definitely vote for McCain, and another 2 % said they were leaning that way. Now, journalists are notoriously lousy at math, but I’m pretty sure that adds up to 44. (Obama had 39 % definite votes and 1 % leaners.)

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By Denise Ross

My documentary about the 2006 abortion ban vote will screen this evening, 6:30 pm at the Elks Theatre in Rapid City. This is part of the Voices of the Heartland Film series, and tickets are $5.

Here’s the trailer for Unplanned Democracy: America’s First Vote on Abortion:  

Anyone looking for a Monday night activity or for a satisfying film experience, and you’ll be in the Rapid City area this evening, check it out.

There will be a shorter film, a bit more than 20 minutes, produced by the Democracy in Action group. I haven’t seen their film but understand it to take a posture against the abortion ban that’s on the 2008 ballot. (My film doesn’t take a side.)

There will be a panel discussion after both films, for which I might or might not still be awake.

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By Denise Ross

Former US Sen. Larry Pressler, R-SD, has cast his first ballot for a Democrat for president.

Pressler, who said that in addition to casting an absentee ballot for Obama he’d donated $500 to the Illinois senator’s campaign, cited the Democrat’s response to the financial crisis as the primary reason for his decision.

That’s the report today at Politico.com.

John McCain’s “handling of the financial crisis made me feel nervous.”

Pressler has mailed his ballot, cast for Obama, but says he’s all torn up about it. Pressler handed off the Senate Commerce Committee gavel to McCain a decade ago.

But Pressler says he will fight to keep the moderate wing of the GOP in domination, especially on fiscal policy - which extends to the money the nation has spent on Iraq.

Discuss.

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By Denise Ross

The Hoghouse Blog news team did not have the stamina for all of Thursday evening’s legislative candidate forum, especially after it got underway about a half-hour late.

So we can’t bring you reports on what every legislative candidate from the greater Rapid City area said.

(Photos by David Larson)

A fraction of the candidates featured at SDSM&T in Rapid City Thursday night waited for the event to begin.  

What we can bring you are photos of folks who were there, most taken before the speeches started.

Republican Senate candidate Stan Adelstein, left, talks to Rep. Brian Dreyer, R-Rapid City.

Rep. David Lust, R-Rapid City, at right, talks to former Rapid City school finance man Dan Dryden. I’ve seen both of them look a lot more cheery.

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By Denise Ross

(Photos by David Larson)

There’s a scurrilous piece of information being put out by my opponent that’s totally untrue.

That’s how former state Rep. and Sen. Stan Adelstein, R-Rapid City, opened his remarks at Thursday night’s candidate form at the SD School of Mines & Technology in Rapid City.

The misinformation has to do with the 2nd Amendment, Stan said, but he didn’t say much else except to direct the audience to a brochure, which outlines his support for the 2nd Amendment. (To see the brochure, CLICK HERE.)

The Rapid City businessman and philanthropist also shared this tid-bit from his past. When the credit market wasn’t so liquid in 1970, much like today, he floated a $300,000 payroll bill between a Tuesday and a Friday, simply hoping that the bank would come through with a line of credit. If not, the payroll checks would have bounced, he said.

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By Denise Ross

I was braced for a rather boring rundown of biographies and glittering generalities on a few issues when I saw the few dozen legislative candidates lined up to speak at Thursday night’s candidate forum in Rapid City.

But the first candidate at the podium, Rep. Gordon Howie, R-Rapid City, delivered fireworks right out of the chute.

(Photos by David Larson)

Howie, who is seeking the District 30 Senate seat, proclaimed his opponent, David Melmer, “a flaming liberal masquerading as a moderate.” Howie said he had thought Melmer to be a nice person with whom he simply had some disagreements. But he has found him to be not such a nice person after all.

He said he had just the day before stumbled onto a website on which Melmer had delivered “a slanderous attack against me” and encouraged the audience to go read the site for themselves.

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By Denise Ross

First a well-known GOP pundit compares Steve Hildebrand to Gen. David Patraeus. Then the Miami Herald makes much of his presence in Miami Beach.

Try as he might to avoid it, one of South Dakota’s pre-emiminent political operatives of his day makes news fairly routinely.

Here’s what Kathleen Parker said about Hilde on the Chris Mathews Show over the weekend:

Ms. PARKER: The Democratic Party is organizing a surge in Florida. They
have dispatched two of their top generals, the equivalent of Petraeus and
McKiernan. Steve Hildebrandt and Paul Tewes have set up shop in Miami and
Tampa.

(At least the Herald spelled his name right, eh?) Paul Tewes, btw, is Hilde’s business partner in the Hildebrand Tewes consulting / lobbying firm.

Parker propelled herself into national prominence a few weeks ago when she suggested that Sarah Palin ought to resign her Republican VP candidacy because her performance had been so cringe-inducing as to harm the GOP.

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By Denise Ross

Chatter about the Democrats acheiving a 60-plus seat majority in the US Senate has only increased since I wrote my newspaper column last week. (Read the full column on the jump.)

The list of Republicans who are in trouble seems as implausible as the financial bailout we’re now undertaking and would have seemed laughably impossible just a few months ago. Elizabeth Dole, Mitch McConnell, Ted Stevens. (OK, maybe we saw the Ted Stevens thing coming. But still.)

Today, a Google News search for “filibuster proof Senate” produces literally thousands of articles about the hey-day likely ahead for Democrats and the rough road for Republicans.

I rounded up just a handful of key races in my column, which appeared in the Mitchell Daily Republic, the Rapid City Weekly News and the Black Hills Pioneer.

OF NOTE: In the version that ran in the Mitchell paper, I foolishly included this sentence:

 Should the current climate hold through Election Day and Democrats win the White House and increase their majorities on Capitol Hill, it would be the first time since the 1930s that a single party held the Oval Office and both chambers of Congress.

I should have included the key point that that analysis included a filibuster-proof Senate, significant for requiring much less bipartisanship. (Throughout most of his presidency, George W. Bush enjoyed a Republican-controlled Congress. Sigh.)

Click “CLICK HERE” below to read the column. Please write in if you note any key races I overlooked.

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By Denise Ross

The day draws closer when we all will see whether South Dakota Democrats will fulfill their hopes to win the 3 seats needed to take a majority in the state Senate.

Many observers love the drama of Rapid City’s District 32 race, between Elli, Stan and Tom - who need no further explanation to regular readers. And who doesn’t love that ongoing soap? (More to come on that front soon.)

But I’m equally interested in the Senate contest in Lawrence County/District 31, home to Deadwood, Lead and Spearfish. With heavyweight Republican Appropriations bulwark Jerry Apa out due to term limits, two equally credible and viable candidates are running.

Lead Mayor Tom Nelson, who’s knocked around Deadwood’s gaming industry for more than a decade, has had the enviable political job of helping to guide a national science lab into Lead’s former Homestake gold mine. No small thing if you do it right, which as far as I know Nelson has. (He’s no dummy. He wouldn’t have thrived in Deadwood’s wild casino business if he were.)

Oh, yeah, and Nelson is a Republican in perhaps the most Republican district in a most Republican state - at least that’s been the story up til now. Democrats have gotten a lot more active in GOP strongholds, and that’s certainly true in Lawrence County.

Which brings us to Nyla Griffith, the Deadwood City Commissioner who is mounting a serious bid for the District 31 seat. Like Nelson, she’s a known quantity with a credible record of local public service and business experience. (Read a recent press release about her door-knocking campaign on the jump.)

Griffith said she’s received a substantial amount of support from life-long Republicans. After talking to Griffith for 15 minutes on his front porch recently, one self-described “rabid Republican” in Spearfish even wrote her a check for $500.

Here are the billboards up in Spearfish - taken in mid-September before the fall colors hit (clearly).

Here’s a trifecta GOP billboard (the GOP seems to be fond of these sorts of ads), with Nelson on the right. Incumbent House member Chuck Turbiville is in center and candidate/former Spearfish Mayor Fred Romkema on the left.

Here’s a Griffith billboard. It says “A voice for change” under her name. Is that a winner this year, even in a place like District 31?

You can read on Griffith’s website how she recently hosted an event with Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (who might like a Dem-controlled Senate if she decides to run for governor in 2010). There also are photos and a report from another event that featured SD Senate minority leader Scott Heidepriem.

Nelson has a MySpace page up, but I couldn’t find a stand-alone website. It is an improvement from my last post about this race, when Nelson had no online presence.

I spoke with Griffith Monday evening at the Dems’ Octoberfest event (see post below), and she’s convinced she’ll receive significant cross-over Republican support.  

Anyone care to put odds on a Democrat winning a legislative seat in Lawrence County? I’m on the edge of my seat with this one. I don’t want to bet against either Nelson or Griffith. Anyone else got more guts than me?

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