Jul 17
UPDATE: A report from the ground in LawCo
By Denise Ross
I got a good on-the-ground report from a Republican friend about the state of politics in Lawrence County, a red county in our (last time I checked, still) red state.
Word is that Dem Nyla Griffith’s Senate campaign is going gang-busters, with the expectation that much or all of the take from the upcoming Williams & Ree event - documented by my pal Ruth at DakotaDiscography - will be funneled to Griffith’s campaign war chest, courtesy of SD Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidepriem, who’s expected to be at the event.
(UPDATE/CORRECTION: Nyla called to clarify that the Williams & Ree proceeds will go to the Lawrence County Dems, who will then decide how to funnel it out to candidates. She has a separate fundraiser set for Sept. 5 with/at the Matthews Opera House in Spearfish. That is the event Sen. Heidepriem will attend. He isn’t expected to attend the Williams & Ree show. My apologies for the confusion. -Denise. Now, back to the original post.)
Griffith’s GOP opponent Lead Mayor Tom Nelson* is no slouch, but he is equally matched in esteem and reputation on the local scene by Griffith. Given the partisan split in District 31/Lawrence County, one would expect Griffith to make a strong but ultimately unsuccessful run, topping 40 percent, probably, on the strength of her past service and standing in the community.
But my pal tells me that things have sort of unraveled on the GOP front in LawCo, most visibly on primary night when the party crowd figured roughly 20 - about half of them kids - when past events drew about 100.
So my pal tells me that Nelson should not rely on his partisan advantage, and I wouldn’t expect him to. However, the very fact that any Democrat is competitive in that corner of our state tells me that Heidepriem’s goal of turning 3 more seats his way to take over the SD Senate is within his reach.
I have a few questions for readers, especially those in Lawrence County (Apa, I hope to hear from you!).
- Is my friend’s assessment of the current climate on-point or off-the-mark?
- Could Gov. Mike Rounds’ varied and ongoing political woes spread beyond Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard and 2010 in their contagion effect? Could that phenomenon also ooze down to 2008 legislative races?
- For the parlor-gamers, whose head will explode first if the Dems take the Senate?
*I was unable to find a campaign website for Nelson. If I missed it, Tom, send me the link and I’ll update this post. -Thanks, Denise
5 Comments so far
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Lawrence County is a changing district because of all the growth that has happened there. It is not the GOP bastion that it has been. Both parties have strong candidates. Should be a decent race.
Gatsby is right. Spearfish (and vicinity) is becoming a repository for liberal refugees from California, etc. That Lawrence County might elect a Dem is not a surprise.
pen dent. Obama carried Lawrence County in the primary. The county repubs favorite son and former county party chair was buried in the state senate primary. (He had two predictable planks: no taxes and no choice.) Times they are a’changing. Nyla has a shot.
I have talked to two self-described lifelong Republicans from Lawrence county in the last two weeks that have said, without any prompting from me, that they intend to vote for Obama because they think he will support the constitution and they think it would be good for the country to have someone smart in the White house. That’s not a large sample, but is enough to convince me that the possibility for reappraisal exists. BTW, neither lives near Spearfish.
I suspect that my neighbors don’t like the prospect of being told what to do by a benevolent theocracy in Pierre, and that came back to bite Tom Hills, who otherwise was very good for this district.
I don’t think Mr. Nelson is universally respected in this area, and a certain prejudice against Lead won’t help him. It also won’t help that he has been claiming credit for the SUSEL when we don’t think he got to spend all that much time at the grownups table.
News media coverage being what it is, I have little clue what the difference might be between the two candidates, though I expect to have a pretty good clue long before Nov.
My personal belief is that we will be represented as well as ever with either candidate, though I’m inclined to think a little stirring of the mix might help just now. Maybe Ms. Griffith? It’s up to you to change my mind, Tom…
Nice talk about Nyla having a chance. I understand that the Northern Hills has changed a little bit, but take a good look at the numbers. It’s one of the most Republican districts in the state. Further, they sent Apa every year without much opposition. I very much doubt they are going to stand up and send a liberal. Remember talking to one or two people does not a campaign make. There are thousands of people out there who don’t pay all that close attention, but they’ll show up to vote on election day. And in a state legislative district in the Northern Hills, they’ll vote Republican.